讲座主题：Measuring ambiguity attitudes for all (natural) events
黄振兴，上海财经大学教授，院长助理，丁伯根经济研究所和鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学博士、丁伯根经济研究所和阿姆斯特丹自由大学经济学硕士、复旦-格罗宁根大学双学士。黄教授的主要研究领域为决策理论、行为经济学、实验经济学、金融经济学。黄教授的研究成果发表于American Economic Review、Econometrica，Journal of Risk and Uncertainty以及Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics等国际著名期刊。
Measurements of ambiguity attitudes have so far focused on artificial events, where subjective beliefs can be derived from symmetry assumptions. For natural events such assumptions usually are not available, creating a difficulty in calibrating subjective beliefs and, hence, in measuring ambiguity attitudes. This paper introduces a simple control for subjective beliefs even when they are unknown. We thus allow for a tractable and completely revealed-preference based measurement of ambiguity attitudes for all events, including natural ones. We introduce indexes of ambiguity aversion and ambiguity perception (or understanding) that generalize and unify many existing indexes. Our indexes are valid under many ambiguity theories. They do not require expected utility for risk, which is desirable for empirical purposes. Furthermore, they are easy to elicit in practice. An experiment on ambiguity under time pressure shows the tractability of our method. It gives plausible results, supporting the validity of our indexes.